The Golden Goose

Have you ever met anyone who has lost at on-line poker? I haven’t either, which seems wrong on a bunch of different levels. I mean, mathematically, if I win 10 dollars, someone has to lose 10 dollars. I can’t win 10 dollars, and the person I beat wins 50 dollars. It’s not Martian math here.

So, am I missing the Golden Goose here and I’m going to end up like Pauly Shore, having to ride my parent’s fame back to the top? Or is the on-line poker boom similar to the internet boom of the late 90’s and the current real estate boom that is consuming the country as we speak?

Everyone I talk to is up at on-line poker. Whether they’re up $90, $4,500 or they clear over $10,000 every month, no one says they’re down. I was talking to Phil Gordon on Friday night and he was talking about all the “easy money” to be made playing poker on the internet. Sure, for a select few throughout the country, I’m sure it is easy money, but there has to be people losing money playing poker.

Now it may sound like I’m coming down on on-line gambling, which couldn’t be further from the truth. I am someone who will bet on almost anything. I’m setting odds on Om getting fighting with someone at Kellett’s wedding. But, and here’s the rub, someone will win money and someone will lose it. That’s just the way the world works.

When everyone was talking about technology stocks and how “you can’t lose money on them” and “P/E ratios are a thing of the past”, most people knew it wasn’t true in the back of their minds. But they let the quick dollar and herd-like thinking get to them and probably lost a good chunk of their wealth.

The same thing is happening today in real estate. “You can’t lose money because everyone needs a place to live” and “The government can’t print up more land”. So, while the leaders are buying up middle class property like they’re gumballs, the calculating people of the world are sitting back, waiting for what happened in Japan to happen here.

This brings us to on-line poker. Since on-line poker is such a sure thing and “you can’t help but win”, millions of people are joining the poker craze. The easiest way to do this is from your house, in your pajamas while watching Laverne & Shirley re-runs. Hey, might as well do what you enjoy while making your money, right?

But it’s going to come crashing down. Not everyone can make money at everything. In poker there is an inverse relationship between winning and losing, and that’s the first rule you need to understand. For everyone who wins money, there is someone losing it. No matter what anyone says, the Golden Goose isn't here and not everyone can win at on-line poker.