Potential Haze

Why is it in any sort of draft, everyone drafts on “potential” and doesn’t take into account what people have done in games? Anyone can gamble on “potential” but when a sure thing is sitting there, how do you pass up on it?

I specifically bring this up in relation to the NFL draft this past weekend. When the Vikings were picking, it was obvious to everyone they were going to take a wide receiver. After jettisoning Randy Moss to the Oakland Raiders for the 7th pick in the draft, everyone and their mother knew they had to replace him. It’s like Dave Nelson trying to make a poker face; everyone sees right through it.

The Vikings only had one question to ask themselves; was Mike Williams going to be available or was someone ahead of them going to snap him up? It turns out he was available and the Vikings fans rejoiced and danced around like Walter Huston. Randy Moss was replaced and the Vikes had concluded the best off-season of any team.

Then it was Nagasaki. Tice dropped the bomb on the fans when he selected Troy Williamson of South Carolina and his speed potential. Kids openly wept and cast furious looks at their parents. Parents stood dumbfounded, waiting for some sort of explanation. But none was forthcoming. I can only assume that Tice was under the “Potential Haze.”

The “Potential Haze is when someone is picked because their numbers look so good. It has nothing to do with performance and how they did on the field in their career. It has to do with what the team envisions them doing in the future. The poster children for the “Potential Haze” are Mike Mamula and Terrell Suggs.

Mike Mamula was a defensive end from Boston College who was predicted to be drafted near the top of the second round or late in the first round based on how he performed in college. Then, he went to the combine and proceeded to blind the crowd with a 35-inch vertical jump, 4.55 40-yard dash and 25 reps with 225 lbs. on the bench press. That moved him up into the number 7 pick in the draft. Three years later, he’s out of the NFL and working with Ickey Woods at a car wash.

Compare that with Terrell Suggs. Fresh off setting the NCAA record for sacks in a season with 24, he was thought to be locked in at one of the top 2 picks. Then came the combine. He ran a 4.84 in the 40-yard dash, 33-inch vertical and 19 reps on the bench press. All of that made him fall to the Ravens at number 11. Not a huge fall, but it was all because he didn’t appear to have the potential, even though he was the career sack leader in the NCAA. How has he done sense? In two years in the NFL, he has 22.5 career sacks and is just coming off a pro-bowl season. So much for potential.

This brings us to the Vikings selection. The Vikings selected Troy Williamson because he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. The Vikings did not select Mike Williams because Mike Tice needs to be smacked in the head with a tack hammer. Let’s compare their college stats:

Troy Williamson (3 seasons)
91 receptions
1,754 yards
13 TD’s

Mike Williams (2 seasons)
176 receptions
2,579 yards
30 TD’s

You have to remember that Mike Williams sat out this last season. If he had played, he probably would have added another 100 receptions, 15 TD’s, 1,200 yards and would have become the all-time leading receiver in USC history. That right there is production. That is Terrell Suggs style production. Yet, we passed on him for the inferior, smaller Troy Williamson.

As Vikings fans, let’s hope Mike Williams doesn’t become the next Terrell Suggs and Troy Williamson doesn’t become the next Mike Mamula. Unfortunately it’s a very distinct possibility that Mr. Williamson is the next Mamula and Mr. Williams will be sipping Mai Tai’s with Suggs in Hawaii in a couple of years.